April 22, 2009
Investing in Shares in Interesting Times
Some investors have a different view on stockmarket downturns. They see the low stock prices as an opportunity to get a good deal.
During times of economic change, it is our natural instinct to protect our investments and distance ourselves from risk. While this reaction is not surprising, it can also mean missing out on profitable opportunities created during uncertain times.
Warren Buffet, one of the world’s wealthiest professional investors, sees market downturns from another perspective, saying “Look at market swings as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.”
Generally when we see a cheaper price for something we want we rush in for a bargain, however it can be quite the opposite with stocks. Why is it that we treat stocks that have dropped in price with fear? Stock prices of a listed firm can fall for a number of factors. Lately we have seen the stock values of a number of strong companies with healthy balance sheets be negatively affected due to a rush to sell as a result of the economic crisis.
Despite the uncertain share trading environment, professional investors are constantly checking the market for investment opportunities. Many fund managers are searching to find stocks in sound companies with strong balance sheets and dividends. For example Australian companies such as household names like David Jones have delivered strong profits after tax and dividends in 2008. However during 2008, David Jones’ share price fell by more than 30%.
Identifying opportunities
Not all firms will be affected by the global economic crisis similarly. Some industries are more susceptible to the economic cycle than others. Providers of basic goods and services continue on almost unabated, for example we all need to eat - so supermarkets aren’t as affected as much as manufacturing, motor vehicle sales or luxury goods.
Australia’s population growth is at a 19 year peak and growing at 1.7% per annum. Australia’s growing population provides increasing demand for goods and services as people need food, housing, cars, and other staples. Unlike many overseas countries, Australia benefits from two key factors: a high population growth rate and a high demand for housing.
Population growth is nearly twice that of the US while Germany has negative population growth. In the US there is an over-supply of housing while Australia suffers from a lack of supply. The combination of limited accommodation and a rising population will create growing demand for housing which will support further construction and provide opportunities for the construction industry.
The value of companies
Many people view businesses with falling share prices with fear, but we need to take a look under the bonnet of these companies to determine why. Have they borrowed heavily? What industry are they in? Are they competitive against their peers? Only by answering these questions, can we know if their share price has fallen for valid reasons or if the company is indeed on sale’.
When investing, many professional investors look for companies with high and maintainable returns, strong balance sheets and ongoing cash flow. These companies are more likely to outlast the volatility storm and may give you a greater return when the market moves into the next phase of recovery and beyond.
Before you consider changing your investment, you should seek financial advice. Having a financial planner and a long-term financial plan can give you confidence to manage the effects of market cycles. With the right advice you can ensure your investments are cut to your risk profile and time horizon, giving you the certainty of knowing you’re doing what’s right for you.
The article brought to you by a Brisbane business coach who offers sales training and a web design brisbane.
Filed under Even More Random Thoughts by Katz
How To Use The Betting Exchange Place Markets To Your advantage. Are you missing out on a punters goldmine?
In article one, I introduced you to the Betting Exchange concept and explained the basics of LAY Betting (Lay to Lose). Now in this article, I’m going to introduce you to another unique and powerful feature of the betting exchanges, the Place Markets.
What Are Betting Exchange Place Markets?
Place markets are as the name suggests, markets which allow you to bet on a selection to be ‘placed’. Eg. a horse to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a 8 runner or larger field.
Now, the first and most important thing to highlight here is that these place markets are completely different to the well known Each Way (EW) betting markets offered by traditional bookmakers. The Each Way bet is in fact 2 bets of equal stakes.
The 1st stake is on the selection to win and the 2nd is on it to be placed. So a £10 EW bet will cost you £20 in total.
A £10 place bet on a Betting Exchange is a single bet and therefore will only cost you £10. If your selection finishes in a place, you collect your winnings and smile.
Think about it for a minute. How many times have you been certain that a horse will be placed, but you have not been confident that it will win…
Traditional Each Way Betting
Take the following example. A horse named ‘Im gonna be placed’ that is available to back with traditional bookmakers at 4/1 (5.0). Your very confident that it will finish in the top 3 in a 10 runner field.
With a traditional bookmaker, your options are:
1) Take a chance on it winning and place a win single on it. E.g. £10 at 4/1
2) Place an EW bet on it. E.g. £10 EW at 4/1 (5.0). Total stakes £20. The bookies will pay you 1/5 odds on the place element of this E/W bet based on their standard EW rules. On our horse which is available to back at 5.0 this equates to 1.8
Now, the only time the above race will be profitable for you is if the horse actually wins. In both cases you would make a very nice profit if it did. For option 1 you would win £40 profit and for option 2, £48 profit.
BUT, if as you suspected the horse only finishes placed in 2nd or 3rd, you actually lose money in both cases. With option 1 you obviously lose all your stake money so are down £10. With option 2, you win £8 on the Place side of the EW bet but still lose £2 overall as the win part of the bet was a losing one.
Enter The Betting Exchange Place Markets<
Using the above example and depending upon the prices of the other horses in the race, you would probably see the Betting Exchanges offering odds of around 1.60 - 2.00 (evens) on this horse being placed. You can therefore put your £10 PLACE bet on at say 1.8 and collect £8 profit (minus commission) as long as the horse finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Only if the horse finishes outside of the top 3 do you lose your £10 stake.
I’m sure this has got you thinking and you can probably see the power in this straight away!
When combined with a good staking plan and a sensible selection process, it can be common to have very long winning streaks when backing horses to be placed on the betting exchanges. These longer winning streaks more than make up for the relatively short prices that are offered on selections to be placed.
Place Market Important Notes
A few important things to note about place markets:
1) Unlike the betting exchange win markets, Place markets DO NOT go “In-Running” when the race starts but this is true of the traditional E/W bets offered by bookies as well.
2) If a race is planned as a 8 runner or more event but a number of horses become non-runners leaving less than 8 runners, the betting exchanges still offer odds on 3 places. This is different to bookmakers who in such cases adjust their odds on the place payment from 1/5 to 1/4 of the win odds BUT they only pay out on 2 places. If a 5,6 or 7 runner field is shortened to less than 5 runners, the betting exchanges will still offer place markets and payout if the horse finishes 1st or 2nd.
3) You can make up the equivalent of an E/W bet on the betting exchanges by placing a bet on the win market and a separate bet on the place market. Depending upon the type of race and the form of the market, you will often find that this offers more value in terms of odds than an E/W bet with a bookmaker.
Backing Or Laying On The Place Markets
As explained in article 1, the ability to Lay a selection is perhaps the most important feature of the betting exchanges. You now have the ability to Lay selections to be placed. In other words, if you have a valid reason to believe that a selection will not even finish in a place, Lay it to Lose on a betting exchange. The real beauty of laying on the place markets, is that the odds are always much lower than the outright win odds so your lay liabilities are much lower.
Trading On The Place Markets
As the place market prices are much lower than the outright win market prices, they also offer a great place to learn the skill of TRADING without much risk to your balance! Betting Exchange trading is simply the process of betting on price movements for guaranteed profits. E.g. Back a horse at 4.0 and then Lay it later at 3.0 for a no risk bet or guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome!
Betting exchange trading will be covered in detail in a future betting article.
Summary
Place markets should be used as part of your betting armory. They offer you the chance to make money frequently with long winning streaks being very common. This helps to build your confidence as well as your betting bank!
Bookie Each Way bets are not always poor bets but in the vast majority of races, the odds are stacked firmly in the favour of the bookmakers. They simply love punters taking EW bets on these races as they know its their bread and butter. A small proportion of races where the market is formed in a certain way do offer the punter very good E/W value but that’s for a different day…
Well that’s it for part 2 of my betting exchange articles. In part 3, I will be explaining the Betting Exchange In-Running markets.
For more help and advice click here (exchange)
and for a trading system click here (market)
Also read about poker hands in order.
Filed under Random Thoughts by Vinnie
Is teacher and theoretician, Gilly was a founding father of c19 Prussian Neoclassicism and forged an essential link with contemporary architecture in revolutionary France. The son of an architect, he studied with Friedrich Becherer at the Akademie der Kunste in Berlin and went on to work for Carl Gothard Langhans and Friedrich Wilhelm Erdmannsdorff.
Langhans’s design for the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin (1785-91), modelled on the Propylaeum in Athens, marked the demise of the late Baroque style that had lingered in Prussia during the reign of Frederick II, and the advent of a new interest in classical precedent. Gilly’s intensive study of Egyptian, Greek and Roman antiquity was stimulated by a six-month visit to Paris in 1797. Although he must certainly have encountered the work of Boullee and Ledoux, Gilly was particularly drawn to the designs of Francois Joseph Belanger.
Among the few buildings constructed to Gilly’s design during his short life were the Villa Molter and Palais Sohns in Berlin, and a mausoleum in Dyhernfurth, near Breslau (only the ruins of the mausoleum survive). Gilly’s lasting fame derives from his teaching at the Bauakademie in Berlin - where he was appointed professor for optics, perspective, and architectural drawing in 1799 - and from two unexecuted designs.
His projected monument to Frederick the Great on Leipziger Platz, Berlin (1796), takes the form of an octagonal enclosure entered through a massive arched portal topped by a quadriga. At the centre of the enclosure a Doric temple - probably derived from the Greek temples at Agrigento, Sicily - is set on a monumental plinth.
In another unrealized project, for a Nationaltheater on the Gendarmenmarkt in Berlin (c.1798), Gilly gave a simple, geometric articulation to the principal elements of the theatre: a cubic block for stage and scenery, and a semicircular auditorium. A simplified Doric order appears both on the gable-less portico and in the interior scheme, while the Diocletian window favoured by Belanger dominates the exterior elevations.
As teacher and model, Gilly exerted a great influence on his pupil and natural successor, Karl Friedrich Schinkel. With the exception of the Dyhernfurth Mausoleum, now in ruins, none of Gilly’s buildings survive.
Filed under Even More Random Thoughts by Katz
A lot of people choose to use rowing machines over other exercise equipment because of the fact that it gives you a full body workout. Not only that, these expertly-engineered machines also help you lose those extra pounds while revitalizing the cardiovascular system through enhanced circulation of the blood. If you’re a newbie then I suggest you read through these three basic tips I have to ensure that you make the most of your workout.
Adjust and Grip
The first thing you have to do when working with exercise rowing machines is to make some adjustments on the foot straps. Before securing the strap adjust it so as to make your heel rest against the base of the pedal in such a way that is comfortable for you. You then need to check on the adjustment of the resistance of the rower. If you’re new make sure that it is set on low so as to avoid cutting your sets short. Like any other exercise machine, you may adjust the resistance of rowers depending on your strength and experience.
The grip of the rower is the next thing you need to secure. Make sure that it is firm, yet relaxed. If the grip is too tight it will make your hands and arms tire faster. You can also alternate between underhand and overhand grips for long workouts so as to reduce the fatigue in your arms.
The Right Technique
Similar to other machines, rowers can also cause more harm than good if used incorrectly. So as not to strain your back make sure that you use your hip and leg muscles for each pull. Remember to sit up straight and keep your elbows as close to your body as possible for every repetition.
Rower Add-ons
There are numerous accessories you can add to your rower. Some are attached to add comfort during the exercise while others are for your own protection. Most people add a padded seat to make their routines easier and more comfortable. Others even purchase heart rate monitors to keep their heart rates in check. This device, like other safety-related devices, is able to transmit real-time data to LCD screens which can be attached to the home rowing machine as well. For the more enthusiastic user, I advise purchasing and installing a slide. Although quite pricey, it will give your workout a realistic feel as the device attached under the rower is able to copy water movements of an actual rowing boat.
Filed under Even More Random Thoughts by Katz
. If properly planned, you and your children, it could be very exciting for all. If you think of the move as being a bridge, old house is the past, new house is the future, then the move would be the present. Try to plan as much as possible, that way you are not halfway through moving and relocation and suddenly something pops up. Here are a few ideas to help reduce the amount of stress you are havingMake sure to leave time to say goodbye to those closest to you. Built-in assurances that the arrival in the new destination will be as smooth as possible.
Moving can seem an insurmountable task. If you have lived at the old location for a few years, you may be surprised by how much you have to pack. When looking at closet space, always estimate at least one box over what you thought. You can avoid the hassle of searching for the right box and packing yourself, if you choose a moving company that offers packing as an option.
Finding the right cheap moving truck may take some time, you will want to start looking as soon as possible. By use of dollies, companies can move things without having to disassembling the furniture. You should plan to get several moving quotes from different companies with local or national reputations for quality, timeliness, and safety. If you consider having the company do all the packing as too much for your budget, get a quote for just doing a couple rooms. Before you get overwhelmed you may want to delegate some tasks to others.
Another way you can alleviate the stress of a move is by allowing time for goodbyes. If you pile everything on your plate at once, you will have a lot of unnecessary stress building up . The last thing you will want in an already stressful time, is to add more tension. If you do not allow your children to say their goodbyes, it will add their resentment to the stress of the final days. You will want to work in one last occasion whether going someplace the family finds special, or even just ordering pizza and watching a movie at home .
Lastly, make sure that the transition to your new location is as comfortable as possible. When everything falls into place, moving can be enjoyable, but it can also be quite draining. If you have not already decided where things are going when it arrives, you may be too tired to do everything that day. Finding transportation for you and your family may be almost as hard as choosing the right moving company. Be sure you have a clear gauge on the arrival time of the moving van at your destination . You may choose to move the whole family together, that way when the truck gets there everyone can start placing things where they are going.
When small children are involved, you may want to find the quickest way to get to your new city. No matter who does the unpacking, the move itself will leave you tired. You will need to find out if car transporters offers insurance on your vehicles, or if you have to cover everything.
You will want to ensure the kids feel they are included in the process. It won’t be long before the kids are settled into the new routine and are finding new friends.
Filed under Random Thoughts by Vinnie